We will review our sector through 7 different prespectives. Let's get down into it.
1) Market size: premiums and the 2024 baseline used for 2025 analysis
According to the Insurance Control Commission (ICC) figures cited by Byblos Research, total premiums generated in Lebanon reached LBP 101,545.3 billion in 2024, up 31.7% nominally from 2023. Converted using weighted exchange rates, that equals about $1.14 billion in 2024, up 28.7% nominally from $881.4 million in 2023.
But the same source highlights the key nuance that defines 2025: in real terms (after inflation), premiums fell (Byblos cites a decline of 11.4% in real terms for 2024 given Lebanon’s inflation context). So the sector’s “growth” is real in cash terms, but not necessarily in purchasing power or profitability.
Life vs non-life (2024):
• Non-life premiums: ≈ $1.04bn
• Life premiums: ≈ $90.5m
This split matters for 2025 because Lebanon’s market is structurally non-life heavy—and within non-life, medical and motor are the big levers.
2) How premiums are distributed by line of business
For 2023 (the last year with a very clear published breakdown in one place), Credit Libanais reports that health insurance represented ~46.93% of gross written premiums, followed by property & casualty (~22.06%), motor (~21.56%), then life (~9.44%).
This aligns with what you see operationally in 2025:
• Medical is the largest and most inflation-sensitive.
• Motor is frequent-claim, repair-cost driven.
• P&C is heavily reinsurance-dependent and pricing-sensitive.
• Life is smaller and more affected by long-term trust and savings dynamics.
3) Number of insurers: market structure and fragmentation
Public reporting frequently references “46 insurance companies operating in Lebanon” in the ICC data context (notably in 2022 figures circulated by industry media).
Even if the exact count moves slightly year to year, the strategic conclusion remains stable for 2025: Lebanon remains a crowded market relative to its economic scale, which pushes price competition in some lines and makes operational efficiency and claims discipline the real differentiators.
4) Claims, loss ratio signals, and what they imply in 2025
Publicly accessible, regulator-sourced quarterly aggregates (via BRITE / Economena referencing ICC) show that in Q4 2024:
• Gross Written Premiums: USD 253,400,000
• Gross Insurance Claims Paid: USD 156,600,000
That quarter implies a claims-to-premium ratio ≈ 62% (a rough “paid loss ratio” signal for the quarter). This is not the same as a full combined ratio (which would add expenses and reserve movements), but it’s still a powerful indicator: claims consume a large share of premiums, leaving limited room for acquisition/administration costs and underwriting margin—especially in medical and motor. Also in Q4 2024, medical claims paid alone are shown at USD 10,700,000 (again, quarterly, aggregate).
Practical meaning for 2025:
- If premiums are not repriced fast enough (or if benefits are too rich), medical loss ratios creep up.
- If repair parts, labor, and “replacement value” keep rising, motor severity rises even with stable claim frequency.
- Underwriting discipline becomes the difference between “surviving” and “bleeding quietly.”
5) 2025 “news drivers”: what changed on the ground
Medical pricing pressure is the dominant 2025 story. Multiple sources highlight a cycle of tariff increases and premium adjustments:
- L’Orient-Le Jour reported that medical insurance premiums were expected to increase (ranges cited around 7.5%–12% in early 2025, depending on company decisions).
- Industry reporting in 2024 already signaled ~10% health premium increases driven by medical cost inflation, and that momentum carries into 2025.
- ArabRe / ThisIsBeirut coverage noted hospital rates with insurers rising by ~15% starting January 2, 2025, which directly pushes claims cost upward unless networks/benefits are redesigned.
At the same time, the professional ecosystem is trying to upgrade itself:
The Lebanese Insurance Brokers Syndicate (LIBS) announced a 2025–2027 strategic roadmap, including priorities like professional development, business continuity, and reinforcing compliance frameworks. That matters because broker behavior (placement quality, disclosure, documentation discipline) can materially affect claims outcomes and disputes.
6) Market positioning: Lebanon vs the region (context for “how big” the sector is)
Byblos Research, referencing Swiss Re comparisons, shows Lebanon ranked 64th globally in premiums in 2024, and about 10th in the Arab world (in the table shown, Lebanon is listed at about $1.135bn total, with $1.044bn non-life and $90m life).
This matters in 2025 because:
The market is not “tiny,” but it is small enough that consolidation, reinsurance pricing, and medical inflation can swing profitability quickly.
Lebanon is large enough to attract serious regional players, but local execution (claims handling + provider contracting + fraud controls) decides winners.
7) 2026 outlook: a realistic forecast (not wishful thinking)
Given the 2024 baseline and the 2025 medical tariff environment, a realistic 2026 forecast looks like this:
Premiums: likely nominally up, driven by:
• continuing dollarization and repricing,
• medical inflation pass-through,
• stricter underwriting terms in motor/medical for loss control.
Loss ratios: pressured unless insurers implement:
• tighter medical networks (tariffs, pre-approvals, provider audit),
• clearer policy wording/limits (reducing claim disputes and leakage),
• stronger fraud detection and claims governance.
Consumer demand: mixed.
• Middle/high-income segments keep buying medical and key covers.
• Price-sensitive segments downgrade benefits or exit voluntary covers.
• Life insurance grows slower unless trust and savings mechanisms improve.
Market structure: still fragmented, but expect:
• more broker/insurer focus on compliance and professionalism (LIBS roadmap),
• more digital distribution experiments and comparison platforms.